Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 98337.282605 103641.802779 108941.035924 114628.697921 120556.851493 126549.922997 133062.950550
2025-08-31 88808.530939 96867.363222 105139.499660 114254.579646 124005.746714 134113.771983 145372.867665
2025-09-07 83249.634801 93289.792972 103816.717174 115654.993019 128574.664819 142224.080445 157712.020107
2025-09-14 78722.222151 90245.042257 102543.247394 116609.493476 132215.220090 148960.563827 168249.149410
2025-09-21 74492.208951 87133.815979 100839.490243 116749.751679 134655.747856 154129.100729 176851.462354
2025-09-28 70909.918802 84470.522781 99382.162488 116924.032131 136919.630354 158925.680918 184896.972064
2025-10-05 68821.265604 83331.177260 99489.373413 118723.036787 140894.928825 165551.981488 194942.269086
2025-10-12 66801.791614 82130.762300 99403.311117 120189.631203 144401.502496 171586.701973 204286.293234
2025-10-19 64600.056280 80591.920063 98814.871678 120973.761050 147038.734412 176569.714760 212394.525384
2025-10-26 62253.933527 78767.931468 97790.467592 121152.987785 148892.171409 180590.546413 219355.871733
2025-11-02 60270.461189 77285.610145 97087.063528 121635.341108 151039.525293 184910.846467 226645.707308
2025-11-09 58185.492307 75593.086079 96054.159659 121651.888274 152574.279277 188470.125787 233019.107749
2025-11-16 56879.713272 74822.332226 96113.045979 122978.997498 155694.085351 193947.129531 241742.855231
2025-11-23 54918.665587 73172.309232 95043.370058 122885.187527 157065.470529 197326.221065 247974.415186
2025-11-30 53910.892936 72669.764024 95345.026030 124440.742065 160422.993981 203086.505568 257085.688337
2025-12-07 52712.950446 71878.485081 95247.934895 125469.906055 163114.725600 208038.332581 265237.573090
2025-12-14 51167.669151 70589.769722 94481.221697 125622.409607 164692.934894 211619.508171 271724.660274
2025-12-21 49723.896785 69382.680438 93773.105602 125808.259436 166281.464715 215195.719349 278205.088018
2025-12-28 49146.926721 69276.290492 94441.344962 127718.295748 170020.098886 221424.988503 287975.500102
2026-01-04 48446.224726 68979.527329 94843.932203 129275.066196 173310.449185 227110.651283 297105.431623
2026-01-11 47465.208136 68278.977511 94698.385917 130107.312340 175671.624091 231642.353283 304821.712399
2026-01-18 46255.902017 67237.139314 94077.256437 130297.528717 177195.153942 235119.001997 311228.872980
2026-01-25 45236.439952 66419.818399 93722.235994 130809.437980 179114.524472 239088.172668 318264.615127